Community Bank Sentiment Index

The Community Bank Sentiment Index is an index derived from quarterly polling of community bankers across the nation. As community bankers answer questions about their outlook on the economy, their answers are analyzed and compiled into a single number. An index reading of 100 indicates a neutral sentiment, while anything above 100 indicates a positive sentiment, and anything below 100 indicates negative sentiment. 

CSBS is collecting responses for the 2024 fourth quarter Community Bank Sentiment Index. Your input helps show the expectations for the future of the overall economy. Take the survey here: https://questionpro.com/t/ALKEAZ4sD3

110
The 2024 Q3 Community Bank Sentiment Index Number

This represents a positive reading in economic sentiment by community bankers and is 11 points above the index reading for last quarter. This is the first positive CBSI reading since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Key Highlights

  • At 110, the third quarter 2024 CBSI is up 11 points from the second quarter 2024 reading and at the highest level recorded since 2021. The latest CBSI is up 24 points from one year ago.
  • At 129, the profitability component had the greatest quarterly improvement, gaining 33 points from the second quarter survey and at its highest level since the survey began in 2019.
  • At 125, the monetary policy component gained 25 points from last quarter and is 72 points higher than one year ago, indicating greater confidence about the impact of monetary policies on the economic outlook.
  • At 20, the regulatory burden component remains by far the largest among the seven components. The regulatory burden component has been below 30 for fifteen straight quarters and is near its lowest recorded level of 18.
  • In the open-ended comments, a large majority of the community banker respondents said their sentiment and outlook could change depending on the outcome of the national elections in November 2024.

 

Read More on the 2024 Q3 Community Bank Sentiment Index Survey Results
  • The third quarter 2024 CBSI is the first reading above 100 and follows ten consecutive impressions below the neutral level of 100. The CBSI has advanced for five consecutive quarters.
  • 307 community bankers from 46 states and the District of Columbia responded to the third quarter 2024 CBSI survey.
  • Five of the seven components that comprise the CBSI improved from the previous quarterly survey, one declined, and one remained the same. Three indicators improved by more than 20 points for the first time since the first quarter of 2021.
  • Similarly, the franchise value indicator gained 23 points from 130 last quarter to 153 in the third quarter and is at its highest level since the second quarter of 2021.
  • At 132, the capital spending component dropped five points from the previous quarter, whereas the operations expansion indicator gained 1 point from last quarter to 133. Both indices are near their historical average values.
  • At 80, the business conditions component increased five points from the previous quarter and is up 21 points from one year ago. Even so, this indicator continues to suggest a weaker economic outlook. The business conditions component has been below 100 for eleven consecutive quarters.
  • The CBSI Uncertainty Index (computed by adding together the “I don’t know/unsure” responses for all seven components) fell six points to 23 from 29 last quarter, signaling less uncertainty. The drop was mainly due to less uncertainty regarding monetary policy decisions, which fell by 8 points.
  • In a special question, 79% of community bankers believe the U.S. economy is at the start of, or already in, a recession. The percentage is up from 75% last quarter.
  • In another special question, community bankers rated the following as their top concerns: government regulation, cyberattacks, the federal debt/deficit, and the cost/availability of labor.

 

cbsi2024q3 chart
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Interactive Dashboard

In this interactive, you can click on a positive, neutral, or negative view in each subcategory to see how those respondents answered other questions. For example, if you click the "they will be better than today" green bar under business conditions, all other subcategories will update to display responses only by those people who believe future business conditions will be better than today. Clicking on the same item a second time will return you to the original display. 

Data Behind the Index

Every quarter, the Community Bank Sentiment Index number will be accompanied with a release explaining the underlying data. Links to the releases are saved below.

Sentiment Index Findings